October is shaping up as one of Bitcoin’s weakest in
years, threatening the cryptocurrency’s reputation for strong autumn rallies.
After an early surge to new highs, BTCUSD has struggled, retreating to a range
between $105,825 and $115,403. If current trends persist, Bitcoin could post
its first negative October since 2018.
Digital assets meet tradfi in London at the fmls25
Early Gains Fade, Market Shows Strain
Bitcoin’s historically bullish October, dubbed
“Uptober” by traders, has seen its momentum stall. Data from CoinGlass shows
BTC is currently 2.77% below its monthly opening price, with only a 4% decline
needed to cement its worst performance in more than a decade. By comparison,
September saw a more than 5.16% increase.
In the past five years, 2021 recorded the strongest monthly
returns for October at 39% amid a booming market when prices surged to nearly
$70K. However, in 2022, the returns increased by 5%. In 2023 and 2024, the
returns were 28% and 10%, respectively. This year, May had the strongest
monthly return at 11%.
“The bulk of October’s upside tends to occur in the
second half of the month,” said network economist Timothy Peterson. He added
that a potential end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening at its
Oct. 29 meeting could provide a “huge signal” for markets.
Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/jklTYLaDcW
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 23, 2025
Several factors have muted the usual October rally. Tensions over U.S.–China tariffs, low liquidity, and a series of
leveraged liquidations have capped gains.
Bitcoin’s drop below $107,000 last week reportedly triggered $1.2
billion in liquidations, erasing long positions built after September’s
rebound. Ethereum, Solana, and BNB each fell 3%–8% in the same period, while
smaller tokens like DOGE and ADA have seen declines exceeding 20%.
Market Sentiment and Predictions
Crypto traders remain cautiously optimistic. Markets
such as Myriad show a swing back toward bullish predictions, with odds favoring
Bitcoin reaching $120,000 before dropping to $100,000. Ethereum is also
expected to rebound toward $4,700. Despite the downturn, the possibility of a
late-month recovery keeps traders attentive.
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“Uptober may not live up to its name this year, but
history shows the month can still surprise,” Peterson noted. With two weeks
remaining, the final outcome for Bitcoin in October remains open, balancing
between seasonal expectations and macroeconomic headwinds.
From another fundamental perspective: historically,
Bitcoin’s price rallies followed halving events, which cut block rewards in
half and created sharp supply shocks that fueled bull markets, according to Bitcoin Magazine.
5% of capital rotation from Gold to Bitcoin can send the BTC price to $242,391 Bullish 🚀 pic.twitter.com/dHv2K36teo
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) October 24, 2025
However, the current cycle has unfolded differently: after
the most recent halving, Bitcoin spent five months in sideways consolidation
rather than seeing an immediate post-halving surge. While prices have since gained momentum, questions have been raised about whether the halving still drives market cycles as it once did.
Keep reading: What’s Next for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin After $19B Weekend Flash Crash?
The current cycle has also already exceeded the
duration from cycle low to cycle high, as seen in prior bull markets. The 2018–2022
cycle peaked 1,059 days after its bear market low, and Bitcoin has now
surpassed that timeframe, approaching the length of the 2017 cycle.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
